Opportunities for Skillful Weather Prediction


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2021-07-26

Opportunities for Skillful Weather Prediction

Today on the show we have Elizabeth Barnes, Associate Professor in the department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, who joins us to talk about her work Identifying Opportunities for Skillful Weather Prediction with Interpretable Neural Networks. Find more from the Barnes Research Group on their site.

Weather is notoriously difficult to predict. Complex systems are demanding of computational power. Further, the chaotic nature of, well, nature, makes accurate forecasting especially difficult the longer into the future one wants to look. Yet all is not lost!

In this interview, we explore the use of machine learning to help identify certain conditions under which the weather system has entered an unusually predictable position in it’s normally chaotic state space.

Elizabeth (Libby) Barnes

Dr. Elizabeth (Libby) Barnes is an associate professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. She joined the CSU faculty in 2013 after obtaining dual B.S. degrees (Honors) in Physics and Mathematics from the University of Minnesota, obtaining her Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Washington, and spending a year as a NOAA Climate & Global Change Fellow at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Professor Barnes' research is largely focused on climate variability and change and the data analysis tools used to understand it. Topics of interest include earth system predictability, jet-stream dynamics, Arctic-midlatitude connections, subseasonal-to-decadal (S2D) prediction, and data science methods for earth system research (e.g. machine learning, causal discovery). She teaches graduate courses on fundamental atmospheric dynamics and data science and statistical analysis methods. Professor Barnes is involved in a number of research community activities. In addition to being a lead of the new US CLIVAR Working Group: Emerging Data Science Tools for Climate Variability and Predictability, a funded member of the NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES), and on the Steering Committee of the CSU Data Science Research Institute, she recently finished being the lead of the NOAA MAPP S2S Prediction Task Force (2016-2020).