Opinion Polling for Presidential Elections

Recently, we've seen opinion polls come under some skepticism. But is that skepticism truly justified? The recent Brexit referendum and US 2016 Presidential Election are examples where some claim the polls "got it wrong." This episode explores this idea.

Thanks to our guests Idrees Kahloon, Jill Darling , and Ernie Tedeschi.

Other References Mentioned in the Show

• The USC Dornsife/L.A. Times poll

• The NYT Upshot piece by Nate Cohn about one USC/LAT poll participant "distorting" results

• Ernie Tedeschi's re-weighting of the USC/LAT poll

• How Much The Polls Missed By In Every State

• Putting the Polling Miss of the 2016 Election in Perspective

• The Polls Missed Trump. We Asked Pollsters Why

• Mona Chalabi, Data Editor for the Guardian on the Partially Derivative Podcast

• How a mid-sized error led to a rash of bad forecasts

• ‘Model Talk’ Debriefs The 2016 Results

• Presidential Forecast Post-Mortem

• Keys to the White House